28 June 2009
Iranian Political Reality and the US
Finally, on CNN's GPS with Fareed Sakaria today, a former CIA operative really explained the nature of "The Iranian Crisis." Mr. Bauer explained that the military, especially the elite units closest to the president, are trying to wrest control of the country from the rule of mullahs. He also said that this is an internal crisis that the people of Iran must settle for themselves. Paraphrasing him, the US should do nothing to interfere with these internal political matters. He also revealed how little intelligence information the US Government has about Iran. Bauer was last there, as CIA, in 2004. No one speaks or reads Farsi at the CIA anymore. To me, the lack of linguistic intelligence capability seems to coincide with Cheney and Bush's priority on Arabic while planning to invade Iraq. If any translators in training or in operation were identified as "gay" they were drummed out of the military, a stupid action by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Secretaries of State and Defense, that eliminated a key element in support of intelligence and of military combat forces. Certainly no one understood the histories of that portion of Asia or their social norms as evidenced by the US military actions and pronouncements in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Caucacus republics that were part of the Soviet Union, in Iraq and in Iran.
Post a Comment
It does not take much effort to read about the several civilizations as they came and went since the time of UR.
In Iran, the cycle of political leadership has been fairly consistent since the Seventh Century of the Common Era, often labeled A.D. Over the past 12 centuries, Persia or Iran has been ruled alternatively by the mullahs or by the secular forces like the military or a shah. Since 1979 CE, the mullahs have had control. Last weekend marked the beginning of secular political leadership. The mullahs will retain their resiliency, as always, because they are Shi'a, and because the Shi'a mullahs run their own public services for health clinics, education, welfare housing and food. [ Hezbollah uses the same methods to retain loyalists within the people of Palestine.] Each faction waits for the other to show weakness or vulnerability as its signal to resume political control of Iran.
Any threats to use military intervention for whatever reason, according to Mr. Bauer, are sabre rattling to appease Congress. In the meantime, by this coming Wednesday, all occupation troops in Iraq will have withdrawn from policing the cities. What might be happening in northern Iraq where the Kurds run things?
Change can happen. The problem with change is that the past tells us very little idea about the future. We overwhelmingly chose 'change' last November at the voting booths. I will wager that every voter had a unique idea about what "Change" would be like and how it would occur. Would continuation of the Bush/Cheney type of federal government, meaning 'better the Devil you know' reaction to fear of change, be better? All we know about the Obama/Biden initiatives comes from press conferences, television addresses and the position papers they have on their campaign web sites.
Labels: Attitude toward Change, control, cycle, history, intelligence sources, Iran, mullahs in charge, political, secular-mullah, translators
<< Home
